Two federal signals, placed side by side for every occupation on a state’s Workforce Pell eligible list: the state’s own ten-year growth projection and BLS’s new relative AI exposure category. Neither number is ours. The screen sorts occupations into four boxes and shows how each state’s list distributes across them — a picture of how the list was built, not a verdict on any occupation or any state. The federal criteria in 34 CFR 690.93 are silent on both trajectory and exposure; this is what a list looks like when you read it through that lens anyway.
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How the screen works. Scope is every occupation on the list whose BLS typical entry education is below a bachelor’s degree — the population an 8–14-week program can plausibly serve. Growth axis: the state’s own long-term projection via the Projections Managing Partnership (a negative ten-year change counts as shrinking). Exposure axis: the BLS AI exposure category released Aug 27, 2026 with the 2025–35 projections (data file); “Very high” is the top quarter of 831 occupations. Per BLS, exposure is relative to other occupations and does not imply job loss, automation probability, or wage effects. Occupation lists are the ones verified on the State Eligibility Tracker; each state’s published source is linked in the scoreboard.
All states
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Scoreboard — how each state’s list distributes
Ranked by the share of below-bachelor’s occupations that are shrinking in the state and Very high exposure, lowest first · hover a heading for its definition · click to re-sort
Growing · not Very highThe ordinary case. The state projects the occupation to grow and BLS does not place it in the top exposure quarter. Build it.
Growing · Very highThe job is changing, not disappearing. BLS’s growth figure already reflects its AI judgment. The question for a program is which version of the job the curriculum teaches.
Shrinking · not Very highA demand question, not an AI question. The state’s own economists project fewer jobs; the existing projection pill on the tracker already carries this.
Shrinking · Very highBoth signals point the same way. Not a prohibition — but from 2029–30 the state certifies 70% placement in the occupation, so a program here is the one where a written rationale earns its keep.